Posted 276 days ago (via feedproxy.google.com)
About once a week someone will tell me there is a bug in my forecast package for R because it gives forecasts that are the same for all future horizons. To save answering the same question repeatedly, here is my response. A point forecast is (usually) the mean of the distribution of a future observation in the time series, conditional on the past observations of the time series. It is possible, ev