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Permanent link - Posted 2 days ago (via flowingdata.com)
PornHub compared minute-to-minute traffic on their site before and after the missile alert…Tags: missile, porn...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 2 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Gur Huberman pointed me to this paper by George Akerlof and Pascal Michaillat that gives an institutional model for the persistence of false belief. The article begins: This paper develops a theory of promotion based on evaluations by the already promoted. The already promoted show some favoritism toward candidates for promotion with similar beliefs, just […] The post The Trumpets of Lillipu...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 2 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
[updated link] Charles Armstrong is a history professor at Columbia University who, so I’ve heard, has plagiarized and faked references for an award-winning book about Korean history. The violations of the rules of scholarship were so bad that the American Historical Association “reviewed the citation issue after being notified by a member of the concerns […] The post A lesson fr...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via blog.computationalcomplexity.org)
Last month I posted about the sensitivity conjecture and today I would like to talk about an interesting game developed by Gilmer, Koucký and Saks and independently by Drucker that could yield a proof. Consider the following game on n bits among three players, Alice, Bob and Carol. The game works as follows: Carol picks a bit position and Alice sets that bit to 0 or 1. Carol then picks anoth...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via flowingdata.com)
From ABC News, this is a clever comparison between people’s worst fears and…Tags: fear...
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Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Aki points out that in cases of antithetical sampling, our effective sample size calculations were unduly truncated above at the number of iterations. It turns out the effective sample size can be greater than the number of iterations if the draws are anticorrelated. And all we really care about for speed is effective sample size […] The post We were measuring the speed of Stan incorrectly&#...
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Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
[link] Kevin Lewis asked me what I thought of this article by Oren Cass, “Policy-Based Evidence Making.” That title sounds wrong at first—shouldn’t it be “evidence-based policy making”?—but when you read the article you get the point, which is that Cass argues that so-called evidence-based policy isn’t so evidence-based at all, that what is considere...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Mark Palko writes: The following needs to be an immutable law of journalism: when someone with no track record comes into a field claiming to be able to do a job many times better for a fraction of the cost, the burden of proof needs to shift quickly and decisively onto the one making the […] The post “The following needs to be an immutable law of journalism: when someone with no track...
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Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Photo (c) Visit Helsinki / Jussi Hellsten StanCon 2018 Asilomar was so much fun that we are organizing StanCon 2018 Helsinki August 29-31, 2018 at Aalto University, Helsinki, Finland (location chosen using antithetic sampling). Full information is available at StanCon 2018 Helsinki website Summary of the information What: One day of tutorials and two days […] The post StanCon 2018 Helsinki, ...
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Permanent link - Posted 4 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
“Eat what you are while you’re falling apart and it opened a can of worms. The gun’s in my hand and I know it looks bad, but believe me I’m innocent.” – Mclusky While the next episode of Madam Secretary buffers on terrible hotel internet, I (the other other white meat) thought I’d pop in […] The post The difference between me and you is that I’m no...
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