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digs
Permanent link - Posted 12 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Back in November 2010 I wrote an article that I still like, attempting to answer the question: “How could the voters have swung so much in two years? And, why didn’t Obama give Americans a better sense of his long-term economic plan in 2009, back when he still had a political mandate?” My focus was […] The post “2010: What happened?” in light of 2018 appeared first ...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 12 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
First, I (Keith) want to share something I was taught in MBA school –  all new (and old but still promoted) technologies exaggerate their benefits, are overly dismissive of difficulties, underestimate the true costs and fail to anticipate how older (less promoted) technologies can adapt and offer similar and/or even better benefits and/or with less […] The post Explainable ML versus I...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via mathlesstraveled.com)
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via blog.computationalcomplexity.org)
I am writing up the result of my survey of peoples opinion of P vs NP (it will be in a SIGACT News, in Lane's Complexity Column, in 2019.) Some  people wrote:                          P=NP but the proof will be nonconstructive and have a large constant. Large constant could happen. If by nonconstructive they mean not practical, ...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via junkcharts.typepad.com)
Kaiser Fung (Principal Analytics Prep, Numbersense) considers how one answers the question of "why stock X is dropping"....
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via flowingdata.com)
In a time we commit less to memory and rely more on technology…Tags: memory, Nicky Case...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Angus Reynolds writes: Recently a PhD student at my University came to me for some feedback on a paper he is writing about the state of research methods in the Fear Extinction field. Basically you give someone an electric shock repeatedly while they stare at neutral stimuli and then you see what happens when you […] The post Can we do better than using averaged measurements? appeared first o...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Patrick Atwater writes: Curious to your thoughts on a bit of a statistical and philosophical quandary. We often make statements like this drought was a 1 in 400 year event but what do we really mean when we say that? In California for example there was an oft repeated line that the recent historic drought was […] The post What does it mean to talk about a “1 in 600 year drought”...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
It seems to be Mister P week here on the blog . . . A question came in, someone was doing MRP on a political survey and wanted to adjust for political ideology, which is a variable that they can’t get poststratification data for. Here’s what I recommended: If a survey selects on a non-census […] The post MRP (or RPP) with non-census variables appeared first on Statistical Modelin...
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digs
Permanent link - Posted 14 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)
Jag Bhalla points us to this article, “Differences in exam performance between pupils attending selective and non-selective schools mirror the genetic differences between them,” by Emily Smith-Woolley, Jean-Baptiste Pingault, Saskia Selzam, Kaili Rimfeld, Eva Krapohl, Sophie von Stumm, Kathryn Asbury, Philip Dale, Toby Young, Rebecca Allen, Yulia Kovas, and Robert Plomin, along with th...
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