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Posted 970 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)

Pejman Mohammadi writes: I’m concerned with a problem in multiple hypothesis correction and, despite having read your article [with Jennifer and Masanao] on not being concerned about it, I was hoping I could seek your advice. Specifically, I’m interested in multiple hypothesis testing problem in cases when the test is done with a discrete finite […]
The post Instead of worrying a...

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Posted 1032 days ago (via junkcharts.typepad.com)

I just did a guest lecture at a New School journalism class. While preparing for the class, I pulled the sad stock chart for GRPN (Groupon): If you bought the hype in 2011, you'd have lost 70% of your investment ($25 to $7). Given what we know today, it's hard for people to feel the hype that the media helped fuel in those days. As a reminder, here is the New York Times's David Pogue gushing about...

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Posted 1152 days ago (via feedproxy.google.com)

Almost all prediction intervals from time series models are too narrow. This is a well-known phenomenon and arises because they do not account for all sources of uncertainty. In my 2002 IJF paper, we measured the size of the problem by computing the actual coverage percentage of the prediction intervals on hold-out samples. We found […]...

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Posted 1189 days ago (via rjlipton.wordpress.com)

Things we did not know Ulam holding a strange device Stanislaw Ulam was a Polish-American mathematician whose work spanned many areas of both continuous and discrete mathematics. He did pioneering research in chaos theory and Monte Carlo algorithms, and also invented the concept of a measurable cardinal in set theory. His essential modification of Edward […]...

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Posted 1313 days ago (via junkcharts.typepad.com)

In case you are not subscribed to my dataviz feed, I put up a post yesterday that is highly relevant to readers here interested in statistical topics. The post discusses a graphic of a New York Times article that interprets the official inflation rate (known as the CPI). I devoted an entire chapter of Numbersense (link)to the question of why the official inflation rate diverges from our everyday e...

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Posted 1313 days ago (via hilbertthm90.wordpress.com)

Sometimes I peruse the debates at Intelligence Squared to see if any catch my eye. There was one this time that seemed really interesting to me. It was a debate on whether or not MOOCs are reasonable replacements for actual … Continue reading →...

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Posted 1446 days ago (via math-frolic.blogspot.com)

...in math blogging, anyway (...sayonara2013).Wasn't going to do any sort of year-end blog retrospective this year, but having scanned several at other math blogs, am feeling a little more inspired now… at around 240 posts(!) last year, Math-Frolic though, would require too much effort to sort through for favorites. So instead I'll just highlight some favorites (from the mere 33 total) ove...

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Posted 1488 days ago (via andrewgelman.com)

After reading Rachel and Cathy’s book, I wrote that “Statistics is the least important part of data science . . . I think it would be fair to consider statistics as a subset of data science. . . . it’s not the most important part of data science, or even close.” But then I received […]The post More on “data science” and “statistics” appeared first ...

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Posted 1488 days ago (via flowingdata.com)

Hansen, Potapov, Moore, Hancher et al. produced high-resolution maps of global forestry to estimate change between 2000 and 2012. Quantification …...

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Posted 1495 days ago (via junkcharts.typepad.com)

I'm hoping to speak at a location near you in the near future but in the meantime, here are two prior occasions you may have missed. The first is the LISA conference. LISA is Leaders in Software and Art. You'd get a flavor of this fascinating group by viewing this 7-minute video (link). I gave a 5-minute lightning talk, which starts at 4:18 on the video. All the lightning talks have been condensed...